At long last, we have a candidate...a great one.
But can he win? In a word, yes.
There once was a man who was relatively unknown who decided he wanted to run for political office. He faced a well-known, wildly popular political executive. Our guy's opponent had held several offices in his long career. He was well-funded and had the support of all of the political establishment. But our intrepid candidate soldiered on even though he had to run a sprint of a campaign because of his late entry into the contest. Our guy was told that he can't win this race. "You're crazy," said all the informed politicos. But he didn't lose heart and he didn't lose the election.
That was the 23rd State Senate district in 2002. Our guy's name is Jim Bryson.
Jim is one of those individuals who has a knack for turning the impossible into a reality. He started a business at the ripe old age of 25 that is now thriving and employs 50 people. When I met Jim in 2002, I was one of those politicos that thought, "What a nice guy. Too bad he's about to get his clocked cleaned." Jim proved me wrong. Thank goodness Jim proved me wrong. Since he arrived in the legislature, he has transformed the Spending Control Amendment from a floundering idea into a political movement.
Rumor around the blogosphere is that Jim Bryson is some sort of sacrificial lamb being offered up to the gubernatorial gods. Take AC Kleinheider (and his post that is poorly titled for an MSM blog.) AC is a sharp guy and I'm sure WKRN pays him well for his opinion, but he's just wrong.
I, too, believe Bryson is a smart, capable man. That's why there is no way he got in this race to win.
I hope AC will explain to me why a "smart, capable man" would get in a race not to win. If he were smart and capable I would assume he is smart enough and capable enough to take the summer and autumn off in place of losing a hard fought race for Governor. AC continues:
While the money Bredesen has at his disposal is impressive, it's more than that. There is no time.
This argument would have some merit if Jim didn't serve in the State Legislature. Tennessee has a well-intended law that forbids legislators from taking money while the legislature is in session. (The law has problems that I'll save for another post.) Had he gotten in the race in November, he would have had two months to raise money before his spigot was shut off because of his legislative duties. During the session, the press would have written an endless stream of stories about how Jim has no money and his well-financed opponent is laying legislative traps at every turn in hopes of catching the senator in a politically unpopular vote. There is no upside in announcing before the legislative session.
Fundraising considerations aside, Beth Harwell was also eying a run at Bredesen until mid-January of this year. Jim was showing deference to a senior legislator and former state GOP chair. So, for all of you wondering why Jim is just now getting into the race, there it is.
Will the compacted time frame impact this race? It could. The election is in six months and that is plenty of time to raise enough money to get his message out and build an organization to deliver it. We would all do well to remember that Jim does not have to match Bredesen dollar for dollar. He has to raise enough to run his campaign well. A strong grassroots fundraising effort and the money from the national party will go a long way. The short race can actually be an advantage. There won't be any time for the campaign to stagnate and grow lethargic. It will be a race of constantly building momentum. The question is whether or not Jim can put enough steam into the race to push him past Bredesen in six months.
And let's not forget that this is Tennessee...a flaming red state. Jim starts this race with a healthy base of support. Before you remind me that Phil Bredesen is the only Democrat to win statewide since the pre-1994 days, consider what Roger Abramson, a skeptic on Bryson's chances, has to say:
[I]t will be nice to see Phil have to go head to head with someone with an IQ greater than a toadstool for once.
Roger said it. Not me. But his point is a good one. Bredesen has never faced anyone with Jim's measure of intellect, charisma and political skill. Bredesen has made a career of running against Bill Boner, Don Sundquist and Van Hilleary. And he lost to a couple of those guys. The one he beat, Hilleary, wasn't able to unify the party after a bitter primary fight with Jim Henry. I don't know if Hilleary simply wrote off support from Henry's voters or if his overtures fell on deaf ears. Whatever the reason, they didn't stay with their party. Bryson will be a unifying figure in the Republican Party. Sure, Bredesen will get some support from traditionally Republican business types but that translates into a lot of money and relatively few votes. Some core Democratic constituencies like labor, trial lawyers and social welfare recipients won't vote for Bredesen. They won't vote for Bryson either, but their ambivalence to Bredesen can cause him serious problems.
I don't know how this race will turn out but I'm certainly not ready to cede it to Bredesen. This I do know, the campaign for Tennessee's Governor in 2006 will be a great one to watch. Despite what one might think about either candidate, it will be refreshing to see two very smart, incredibly accomplished individuals who have widely divergent visions about the future of our state duke it out. We can hope - and expect - that this campaign won't be the race to the bottom that we saw in 2002. For those of us who love a contest of ideas, we may not see another race like this one for a generation.
And that brings me to my final thought. No matter who you're for, don't sit this one out. Get in touch with the campaign of your choice and get involved. We're going to have a great debate about the future of Tennessee and it will be a richer, more productive debate if your voice is involved.
More on the themes and issues surrounding this campaign in a future post.
