South End Grounds

That Pesky 22nd Amendment

This was good enough to bring me out of the bullpen.

Listen to this audio snippet from failed Gubernatorial candidate and present Senatorial candidate Van Hilleary, then read on.

I know it's a little fuzzy, but here's what I understood:

Now, ya' know I think the biggest thing that we could do for the values (inaudible) is very simple.  Reelect George W. Bush.

Had Mr. Hilleary said this on January 31, 2004, I would have cheered.  Too bad he said it on January 31, 2006.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see George W. Bush serve a third term but that's just not possible.  Mr. Hilleary went to law school and while he was there I'm sure someone must have taught him that the 80th Congress passed the 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution 'round about 1947.  It reads, in pertinent part:

No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice

That is all.  Back to my bullpen now.

Bryant to Receive Major Endorsement

TeamGOP is reporting that Ed Bryant will receive Tennessee Right to Life's endorsement tomorrow.  TNRTL is one of the state's largest and most effective conservative organizations and has proven in recent years that they can swing elections, especially Republican primaries.  The pro-life group was instrumental in defeating former State Sen. Bill Clabough (R-Maryville) and former State Rep. Bob Patton (R-Johnson City) after both legislators voted against the organization's signature legislation.  This could be, quite possibly, the biggest news of the Senate race, to date.  And, if it happens, it will be great news for Ed Bryant's momentum-filled campaign.

Bryant and TNRTL Executive Director Brian Harris will be appearing on the Steve Gill Show on 99.7FM tomorrow morning.  I suspect it will be during Gill's most listened to hour, 7-8 a.m.

If the endorsement goes through, as I expect it will, I'll put up a post tomorrow with much more detail.  That will probably be my last post on the Grounds for a few days as I sit in for Bill Hobbs. 

Senate Race Coverage

Kudos to Adam Groves for putting together a fantastic website with wall-to-wall coverage of the 2006 Tennessee Senate race.  Blogs, MSM, polling...it's all there.  There is no excuse for anyone going to the polls uninformed about this race.

Great job, Adam.

Zogby/WSJ: Bryant "Strongest Potential Candidate"

Fred Thompson Would Trounce Phil Bredesen

Don't take my word for it, read it here (requires much scrolling).

Zogby's most recent polling for the 2006 Battleground U.S. Senate and Governor's races shows that Ed Bryant is in the strongest position to defeat either of the candidates running in the Democratic Primary, Harold Ford, Jr. and State Sen. Rosalind Kurita. Says Zogby:

While former Congressman Ed Bryant, who lost a 2002 primary to Lamar Alexander, the man who succeeded [Fred ]Thompson in the U.S. Senate, is the GOP’s strongest potential candidate, Van Hilleary, the conservative former congressman who ran against Bredesen and lost in 2002 would also likely win. Beth Harwell, a state representative and former state Republican chairwoman, performs at levels similar to Hilleary.(emphasis added by The Groundskeeper)

In what could be perceived as a weakness for the Van Hilleary campaign, Zogby notes that Beth Harwell is running at a similar level to Hilleary.  Harwell, of course, has never run statewide before and withdrew from the Senate race several weeks ago, a race for which she did very little campaigning.  During that time Hilleary has traversed the state and raised hundreds of thousands of dollars both inside and outside of Tennessee.  To say that the two are performing at "similar" levels does not bode well for Hilleary. 

The polling must also breathe some life into Kurita's chances at the Democratic nomination.  Each of the Republican hopefuls, save Ed Bryant, performs worse against her than they do against Harold Ford, Jr.  The Democrats may indeed have a race on their hands.

Finally, Zogby's poll shows that former Republican Senator Fred Thompson would defeat handily incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Bredesen by a thirteen point margin.  Few think Sen. Thompson would make such a run but the poll indicates that a strong candidate could knock Bredesen off.  Given that she has been out of the Senate race for quite some time and is polling as well as an active candidate, Beth Harwell might be reasonably considered such a candidate. 

(Tip o' the cap:  B4B)

Around the Horn

I managed to peel my eyes away from my beautiful little girls today to see what's going on in the world.

Blogging for Bryant is en fuego.  Ed Bryant is in the race to stay....Harold Ford, Jr.'s money is not.  Opines one of B4B's commenters, "It's hard to hold onto all that cash when so many rapists and murderers need parole, and so many friends are accused of manslaughter." Heh.

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From Roger Abramson's word processor to God's eyes....

You need to stop pretending to be involved and really get involved. Elections for the legislature are just over a year from now. Elections for the council are just nine months after that. We need the criminal lawyer who has dealt with the judicial system firsthand and knows where it works and where it doesn’t. We need the self-made businessman who can bring new ideas to government. We need the retired teacher who has served on the front lines of public education. We need the health care professional who has real-world experience with TennCare, Medicare, Medicaid and all of that other stuff that only about 10 people on Capitol Hill even remotely understand. We need the homemaker who understands what life is like for the average citizen beyond all of the party platforms, white papers and fiscal notes that clutter the political sphere.

In short, we need people like you. It may be some of the hardest work you ever do, but democracy isn’t supposed to be a piece of cake. Newspapers like this one thrive on poking fun at the foibles of our elected officials—the dumb, the corrupt, the incompetent and the all-of-the-above. But we’d be happy to write a piece about how swell things are going because people who actually have a clue are finally in charge. So get out there, take your lumps and show us what you can do. But above all, stop your whining.

Roger writes with some authority on this.  At least twice that I know of, Roger has had the fortitude put his name on a ballot.  He's exactly the type of person we need in public service.  And we need people like you, too.

He ends his column with a plug for some bright political strategists that potential candidates would be wise to call.  I can't run for office because my employer won't allow it, but I try to serve in other ways.  I love helping smart, principled and dedicated conservatives get their campaigns for state-level offices off the ground.  If you've been thinking about it, send me an email.  Oh, and my employer doesn't allow me to accept compensation for these services, so it won't cost you a thing.

(Tip o' the cap:  One such person that Tennessee would do well to elect to public office, Bob Krumm.
Looks like Joe at Chattanooga-Hamilton Civic Forum agrees with me. Run, Bob, run.)

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Speaking of Bob Krumm, head over to his blog and start scrolling...the rich irony of campaign finance (ahem) reform...Bob exhibits a quality that has escaped at least one Georgia judge -- common sense...And speaking of judges who lack common sense and any sense of judicial restraint.  More on this story from Blake Wylie. 

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16?  Two is enough for me.  But to each their own.

(Tip 'o the cap: Michael Silence, who links to a self-righteous, egomaniacal, left-wing, nut-job of a  columnist from, where else?, San Francisco.)

I hope the left keeps spewing this kind of bile.  Everytime they do, they turn off at least a few voters.  In this case, the 18 members of the Duggar family. 

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More from Planet Bizarro.  It was a Republican scheme to have the FBI infiltrate the legislature in an effort to remove African-Americans from office.  So says the unstable State Rep. from Chattanooga, JoAnne Favors.  Keep talkin', JoAnne, just keep on talkin'.

Memo to those who think Tennessee Waltz was racially or even politically motivated:  Corrupt people were targeted and it just so happens that some of those people were black and some of them were even white. Some of them were Democrats and one was a Republican.  Perhaps because the Republican Party isn't the most fertile territory for corruption. 

More from Adam Groves.  Still more from Adam. 

From Joe at Chatt. Civic Forum:

There's not a story here. There is an attention-grabbing distraction ploy, and nothing else.

Yep.

And hold onto your chairs here, I agree with TN Liberal:

The time seems appropriate to look at the acts that were committed here. This was not a case of subtle misuse of influence or political patronage. The accused were not enticed into giving away jobs or throwing out parking tickets. They were offered cold, hard cash to pass laws that would be to the detriment of the community. And they took the money. These people, Democrats and Republicans, black and white, abdicated all responsibility to their constituents in exchange for cash.

Yep, again.

Michael Silence has the FBI's response to JoAnne Favors mindless ramblings. 

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Braves pitching coach extraordinairre Leo Mazzone won't be leaving Atlanta to join the New York Yankess.  Whew.  But he might head off to Baltimore.  This is one free agent the Braves can ill-afford to lose.  Which is why the Bravos are playing hardball.

UPDATE:  Looks like he's gone.  I am quite literally teary-eyed.

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My World Series prediction is one step closer to reality with the Astros' NLCS victory.  The Cardinals will win one, perhaps next year if they stay healthy throughout the playoffs.  But this year belongs to the 'Stros.  It's only fitting that after 15 years of playing together - one-third of the franchise's life - Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell will finally play in a World Series together.  They are two of the classiest guys who ever put on a baseball uniform and what they have done over the course of their careers is nothing short of spectacular.  Mark this down.  You will never, ever, ever again see two first ballot Hall of Famers play their entire careers together. 

It broke my heart to see the Braves lose, but if they must lose I don't mind it being to this club.  They have a nice mix of great veterans like Bagwell, Biggio, Andy Pettite and one of my favorite all-time players, Roger Clemens balanced by youngsters like Willy Taverez, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt and Brad Lidge.  And they're all ballplayers, not primadonnas.  They are the team you'd most like to have a beer with.

For those of us who appreciate the big moments in baseball, here's one to look for in this World Series.  We all remember Kirk Gibson hobbling around the bases on one leg in the 1988 World Series after hitting a game winning homerun.  Keep your eyes on Jeff Bagwell if he DH's in the American League games.  You just might see him muscle a ball out of the park with his one good shoulder at a key moment in the Series. 

A few predictions:

• The teams will combine for 18 runs for the series.  Both pitching staffs are amazing and both offenses can be anemic.
• A.J. Pierzynski's good luck with the umps runs out and gets a few calls going against him. He's a jerk and he deserves it.
• Craig Biggio will hit better than .350.  He's going to make his only trip to the World Series count.
• Chris Burke (former UT Vol and current Brave killer) will help decide a game.  He's always in the right place at the right time.
• Roger Clemens will win Games 1 and 5 against Jose Contreras who will slide into one of his famous meltdowns.
• NLCS MVP Roy Oswalt will win Games 3 and the deciding Game 6 in addition the World Series MVP.  You gotta' love a guy whose team owner motivates him by offering to buy him a bulldozer. 
• Andy Pettite is the hard-luck loser in Game 2 to Mark Buehrle.  Final score 2-1. 
• Astros in six. 

 

Two Questions

Blogging for Bryant asks two very important questions that need an answer.

1. "Why is [Van] Hilleary running?"
2. "Does Van Hilleary care that his presence in the race is splitting conservative strength?"

B4B refutes the answer to question #1 that Hilleary is giving on the campaign trail about being the strongest candidate. Only one Republican has lost statewide in the last 11 years.  His name is Van Hilleary.  That he is the strongest candidate in this race is, at the very least, debatable.  Furthermore, Hilleary and his campaign team have already declared that, "The Republican nominee will be the Senator?"  If the outcome of the general is decided in the primary, why do conservatives need a stronger candidate than Ed Bryant? 

Well-intentioned Hilleary supporters, people who have spoken to him about this, have told me that Hilleary views this race as his last best chance to hold a statewide office.  So Hilleary's answer to the primary question every candidate for every office must answer falls far short of what we should expect from someone seeking a seat in the United States Senate.  There has to be something more.  The question Van Hilleary needs to answer is, "what do you want to do when you are a United States Senator?" And, as a follow-up, "which of those things do you not think Ed Bryant will champion?" 

In fact, a quick view of the Hilleary campaign's issues page highlights several issues that Ed Bryant was talking about while Hilleary was running for Governor.  Which leads us to another question, "Mr. Hilleary, if you care so deeply about these federal issues; confirming conservative jurists, border security and outsourcing foreign policy to the U.N., why did you not seek an open U.S. Senate seat in 2002 instead of running for Governor, where you could do little to nothing about them?"

The real answer, the one you'll never hear come of the lips of Van Hilleary, I fear is, "I thought I could be elected Governor in 2002 and, now I think I can win a U.S. Senate seat."  Simply put, that's not a good foundation upon which to build a race for the Senate.

And what are the consequences of Van Hilleary being in this race?  We now have to answer question #2.  We have two proven conservatives in Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary going after the same segment of voters while Bob Corker, who will get a slice of the conservative vote, has the entire moderate wing to himself.  There are enough conservative voters in a Republican primary for either Bryant or Hilleary to win even if they both stay in the race, but it will tough.  So, if Ed Bryant has been talking about the same issues that Hilleary champions now that the Governor's mansion is out of the picture, why does he stay in the race?  Is it because he has blown the doors off of Bryant's campaign since he entered the race?  Not hardly, their fundraising is pretty much equal and three out of four scientific polls show Bryant with a lead in the race.  Bryant has even built an advantage in terms of how his fundraising is structured.  Hilleary has gone after large contributors that have already given the maximum allowable contribution or are close to doing so.  Bryant has built a network of smaller contributors that can be continually tapped throughout the campaign.  Bryant has also raised significant amounts of money from Tennesseans who have a vote in this race, while a significant portion of Hilleary's contributions are coming from out state, like $30,000 from members of his Washington, D.C. lobbying firm.  Finally, much of Hilleary's cash can only be used in the general election and Bryant has raised around $100,000 more that can be used in the primary.  (That's an estimate because the Hilleary campaign has not released how much primary election money they raised in the most recent quarter.)

There are, in my estimation, three possible outcomes if Van Hilleary stays in the race.

First, he could win the primary. But I think with each passing day that becomes less and less likely.  Many activists who are involved in the Hilleary campaign have told me that they are supporting Van because they feel like they owe it to him.  They will do what they need to do in order to fulfill their perceived obligation to him but little more.  To a person, they say that they regret having to choose between Hilleary and Bryant and would welcome the idea of conservatives coalescing around one candidate.  Evidence, both polling and anecdotal, suggests that Van Hilleary doesn't have one more supporter today than the day he announced his candidacy.  And he may have fewer.  Given that, a victory for him in this three-way primary is unlikely.

The second outcome, and I think the most likely, is that Hilleary's presence will make much closer a race that Bryant should win handily.  There are enough conservative votes to win a three-way race and all indications are that Ed Bryant is in a position to capture enough of them to win. 

But what if he doesn't?  That's the third outcome.  Hilleary and Bryant evenly split conservatives and hand the nomination to Bob Corker. 

Van Hilleary has done a lot over the years to advance conservatism in Tennessee.  He's been a great party builder and helped elect several good people to local and state offices.  However, if his presence on the ballot means that Bob Corker becomes our nominee, all of the good that Hilleary has done over the years will be forgotten.  His legacy will be that of a spoiler for conservatives.  When the conservative movement had a chance to put one of its own in the United States Senate, the opportunity was squandered. Not because there was a defining issue that separated him from Ed Bryant, but because this is a race Van Hilleary thought he could win.

Which leads to one final question, does Van Hilleary really want that to be his legacy?  I agree with B4B's advice to Hilleary, "Live to fight another day."

Rusty Getting Greased

Some guy named Rusty (last name unknown) has anointed himself as the arbiter of reality in the blogosphere.  Too bad for Rusty, he seems only to be a purveyor of fiction. 

In a recent post he claims that Bob Corker is buying endorsements because he reimbursed Paul Fassbender, a campaign volunteer, for gas and mileage.  Now, all of my regular patrons know where my loyalties lie in the 2006 Senate race and that I'm not one to defend Bob Corker.  But this is beyond the pale and demonstrates that Rusty is anything but serious about an intelligent discourse on political matters.

Rusty claims:

Is Mayor Corker's support so thin he has to pay for testimonals [sic] on his behalf?

Come on, Bob. We all know you wanted to have a testimonal [sic] from Nashville on your site, but paying for it?

So how much does a testimonal [sic] on behalf of Bob Corker cost? From the FEC 1st Quarter report: Paul Fassbender: Reimbursed $60.64 for mileage and gas to Lincoln Day, 2/28/05 Paul Fassbender: Reimbursed $205.63 for mileage and gas, 3/23/05

Yikes, for almost $300 in gas money, with gas prices so high these days, maybe the Corker folks should make a run at ol' Rusty's endorsement!

Holy Toledo, Batman.  A guy is volunteering his time to run all over the state on behalf of a candidate he believes in and that candidate has the temerity to reimburse him for his gas money.  The shame of it all.

Over the past few months, I've had a chance to get to know the volunteer in question.  He's a very sharp and articulate guy, just the type of person you want to send out as a surrogate when the candidate can't attend an event.  Why should it cost a volunteer a bunch of money to take a very active role in the political process?  Isn't he doing exactly what we decry others for not doing? 

Every time I talk to this volunteer he's off to a remote part of Tennessee to work on behalf of his candidate.  He could be doing any number of other things that Corker supporters like to do in their spare time. For instance, sailing on his yacht, playing squash, enjoying a fine meal at an upscale restaurant or raising taxes (that's a joke, Paul).  But instead, he takes his free time and disposable income to participate in the political process. 

Disposable income, you ask?  But isn't he being handsomely reimbursed?

Well, sort of?  I'm sure he has used more than $260 in gas and wear and tear on his vehicle.  Again, he spends almost every weekend traveling for his candidate, so $260 seems like a paltry amount.  Plus, and Rusty doesn't tell you this part, the volunteer in question has donated almost as much money to the campaign as he has received in reimbursements.  Needless to say, he's still in the red on this deal.

My friend is somewhat misguided in his choice of a Senate candidate.  (Please remember that I say that as someone who is very involved with an opposing campaign.)  But I'm glad that he cares enough about important issues and critical campaigns to get involved and make a difference in the outcome.  He's decided to do more than cast stones from a cheesy website with the safety of anonymity.  Only a fool would think that he is profiting from his efforts.  Which explains, I guess, why Rusty thinks this volunteer is laughing all the way to the bank.

Harwell Won't Run for Senate

Beth Harwell will not seek the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate.  She's been eyeing a run at Phil Bredesen and the Governor's office.  Today's announcement was presumably the first step toward a Gubernatorial bid.

Groundskeeper Prediction:  She gets into the Governor's race around Sept. 15th and she'll give Phil Bredesen the race of his life.

What Will Van Do?

At the last Tennessee GOP State Executive Committee meeting Van Hilleary challenged the Committee to pass a resolution against him for continuing to serve on the Republican National Committee while running for the United States Senate. 

The Committee will meet again this weekend so I did a little checking around to see what was going on with this situation.  One committee member told me that a resolution is being developed to remove Hilleary from his position as National Committeeman.  The member also told me that the votes are there to pass it if Hilleary doesn't back down from his position. 

Surely, Hilleary doesn't want an embarrassing defeat that would show weakness with grassroots Republican primary voters at this stage of the game.  But that might be what's in store for him if he insists on holding an official party position while running in a contested primary.  It's a situation not allowed in other states and fraught with conflicts of interest.

Moore Taxes

My buddy Nathan Moore is still getting heat about his ill-advised comparison of Ronald Reagan and Bob Corker.  (Read all about it here, here, and here)  I hate to turn up the thermostat on him but I'm going to turn up the thermostat on him.

In the post that started all of this business, Nathan writes:

The property tax rate in Chattanooga is 2.516 per $100 of assessed value. The tax rate in Knoxville is $3.05 per $100 assessed. The tax rate in Nashville, in the Urban Service District, is 4.69 per $100 of assessed value. Memphis is simply absurd, with a combined county and city rate of 7.2704 per $100 of assessed value. Among the largest five cities in Tennessee, notice which is the lowest.

Three words for you:  "apples and oranges."   Nashville's property tax rate is effectively a combined city/county rate because it is a Metro Government.  Chattanooga's property tax, combined with Hamilton County's rate of $2.634, is $5.15 which is - you guessed it - higher than Nashville's. 

Nathan linked to this release from TN Tax Revolt to buttress his claims. I'd urge anyone interested in Bob Corker's tax record to study it carefully, especially the #7 spot.  Sure, Memphis and Knoxville are higher up on the chart than Chattanooga.  But then again, so is almost every other city in Tennessee.  Pointing to Chattanooga's position relative to Memphis and Knoxville with pride is like the Red Sox bragging about finishing ahead of the Royals and Devil Rays.