The Federal Marriage Amendment hit a roadblock today in what will turn out to be the first of many defeats before it finally passes and goes to the states for ratification...we hope. The press has begun already to spin that this was a procedural vote, not a vote on the merits of the amendment. Resist the urge to buy this load of fertilizer.
What right thinking Senator is going to go home and argue that he was for the amendment but opposed the procedure that will bring the amendment to fruition? If one wants to vote for an amendment, why would one vote against closing off the debate so they would have the opportunity to vote? No, it can be assumed that every Senator you see listed below is a proponent of gay marriage.
I am loathe to disagree with Glenn Reynolds, with whom I often agree, but I feel I must. He argues that because FMA was doomed to fail, it was foolish to move forward with it. Mr. Reynolds is unquestionably brilliant. He teaches law at the University of Tennessee, where I couldn't get in. But I do know a little about politics and because I do, I can say that this was not foolish, but rather textbook.
So what did proponets of traditional marriage gain today?
First, this issue was solidified as a serious one on which politicians must stake out a position. Tough votes will be taken and you better show up ready to defend your position. Which leads me to point number two...
The Johns didn't show up to vote on a hotly contested issue that will get lots of play throughout the campaign. Most Americans, including conservatives, can stomach an opposing view easier than someone who doesn't show up to take a tough vote. If John, Inc. opposes FMA, as they say they do, they should emblazen their position in the Congressional Record. After all, it is their job.
Incidentally, what would the headline be if President Bush neglected his duties to give a speech in Iowa? You know the answer.
What else was achieved? Look at the no votes. You will see 43 D's. One of whom is Tom Dachle who is fighting for his political life. You might also notice the names Breaux, Graham and Hollings - all Democrats vacating their Senate seat and saddling their potential Democratic successors with this vote. Each of those potential successors will now have to answer for someone else's vote while running in Southern states. That's four seats where the GOP hand was strengthened.
That doesn't just mean four more votes for FMA next year. It also means four more votes for the President's economic agenda, four more supporters for the War on Terror and four fewer obstructions of President Bush's judicial appointments.
No, this was not a fruitless exercise. The politics worked just like you'd learn in Politics 101. Democrats will say, and are saying, that this is just a political issue. They may not want to recognize it publicly but they know this privately. If you want to advance policy you must win politically. Call it wedge issues. Call it politics. It's part of the game. And while it may be ugly at times, it's the best game going.
So, that's the politics. What about the policy? I don't know if I can offer anything better than this analysis of marriage in Scandinavia from the Weekly Standard. Gay marriage has been prevelant in Scandinavia for 10 years now. The results are sobering.
A majority of children in Sweden and Norway are born out of wedlock. Sixty percent of first-born children in Denmark have unmarried parents......
Same-sex marriage has locked in and reinforced an existing Scandinavian trend toward the separation of marriage and parenthood. The Nordic family pattern--including gay marriage--is spreading across Europe. And by looking closely at it we can answer the key empirical question underlying the gay marriage debate. Will same-sex marriage undermine the institution of marriage? It already has......
Denmark in the nineties saw a 25 percent increase in cohabiting couples with children. With fewer parents marrying, what used to show up in statistical tables as early divorce is now the unrecorded breakup of a cohabiting couple with children......
Sweden registered the lowest marriage rate in recorded history in 1997......
Between 1990 and 2000, Norway's out-of-wedlock birthrate rose from 39 to 50 percent, while Sweden's rose from 47 to 55 percent......
Read the whole thing. It's chocked full of statistics about how the adoption of gay marriage is slowly leading to a society where cohabitation, not marriage, is the norm. It cannot be argued that these loose ties are preferable to the bonds of marriage and family in the rearing of children.
I'll continue to stay on top of this and welcome your thoughts.
